Fall forecast will be driven by El Niño

What topic is almost universally understood, emotionally neutral, and something people are experiencing at the same time? Discussing the weather is a classic conversation starter, and for sailors, it is our lifeblood and there could be soon a lot to discuss.

AccuWeather’s 2026 Fall Forecast is setting up for a varied fall across the USA with weather pattern driven by a strengthening El Niño which shapes excessive rain and drought conditions across the U.S.

“When you have a strong El Niño, it changes the weather pattern across much of the country,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. “Some areas become much wetter; others stay warmer than normal, and those shifts can have a big impact on flooding, drought, tropical activity, and even early-season snowfall.”

Key forecast highlights include:

• A wetter pattern is expected to develop from the Southwest into the Southeast, increasing the risk of repeated rounds of heavy rain and flooding.
• The Northwest is expected to remain one of the nation’s biggest wildfire concerns, with dry thunderstorms and gusty winds capable of fueling large fires well into early fall.
• Northwest & Canadian wildfire smoke could once again impact air quality across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast this fall.
• Snow could arrive earlier than many expect, with flakes possible in the northern Rockies by late September and the potential for a more impactful snow event in parts of the Northeast during November.
• Warm days followed by cool nights may set the stage for a vibrant fall foliage season in portions of the Northeast before wetter weather returns later in the season.

For more details, click here.

See graphs below: